“If we do X, Y will happen.”
Are you sure our complex world really works like that?
We tend to apply causal thinking (X causes Y) to most of what we do, but this belief that everything can be reduced to individual parts doesn’t allow us to investigate the entire set of factors and interactions—not just X—that could contribute to Y in a complex system.
When navigating complex systems, applying systems thinking (how X works together with the entire system) allows us to understand the broader scope of how all the individual parts in a system interrelate so we can make better decisions.
Instead of thinking X causes Y, take a step back and consider how the individual parts interact to make up the big picture:
“If we do X, how might the entire system be impacted?”